This is a logical fallacy that affects many games of chance. Although it manifests itself in other activities as well. It basically consists of having the feeling of being able to predict an outcome knowing that the outcome is purely random. Let’s take a well-known example.
Let’s say we bet on heads or tails. After tossing the coin up to four times in a row, it has always come up heads. In the next toss, our logical mind tells us that in the probabilistic series the possibility of it coming up heads again is remote, only 1 in 32. We will thus bet on tails. However, each coin toss is independent of the other. The probability of coming up heads or tails is always 0.5..
The essence of gambling
Games of chance are based on that, on chance. chance is a chance that cannot be determined in advance, such as genetic mutations in biology, certain dynamics in the quantum world, or the result of rolling the dice. Randomness is present as an algorithmic mechanism in the roulette cylinder or in the reels of online slots. The random number generator found in internet casino machines does just that, generating a sequence of numbers subject to chance.
However, our brain always tries to order events in a rational sequence governed by predictable causes, however much they may be. actually by chance and we know it. For example, we bet with the intention of getting a prize, so despite the risks we assume, our intention is to guess or predict the movement that will bring us profit.
- I know bet because there is something of value at stake.
- There is risk inherent due to the randomness of the process.
- If we win we get a prize.
The logical fallacy
It consists of an error in the logic of the argument. The conclusion of this may be correct but the steps taken to reach such a conclusion contain gross errors, for example, faulty or outright false information. The opposite can also happen. From some correct premises, a deduction is drawn that is not correct..
For example, the logical form of an argument would be the following:
- If A, then B
- Therefore, A
This formalization can lead to a fallacy if we logically state the following:
- When it snows it’s cold.
- It’s cold.
- So it’s snowing.
The formalization is logically valid. The premises are true, but this is not a guarantee of a correct deduction.
The logical fallacy and casino games
Despite having objective information, our deduction of events can lead us to conclusions that are false. It is important to be aware of this because In casino games, the very mechanics of slot machines or roulette make us make unwise decisions. that they can cost us a lot of money; and responsible gaming must always be the premise. In all casino games governed by chance our intuition commits the following fallacies:
- A random event has more probability to occur if it has not occurred for a long period of time.
- A random event has less likely to occur if it has occurred for a certain time.
But this intuition that governs us is completely wrong, and for various reasons. Slot machine or roulette events are purely random, unless the machine is rigged. Each event is independent of the one that precedes it and the one that follows it.. There is no pre-established harmony between them, for example, the probabilities of the roulette ball landing in the red or black pocket is not subject to an equilibrium in the results. That is, from the point of view of randomness, the ball may well fall into the black square all night, strange as it may seem to us. This is usually expressed as follows: dice, ball or coin have no memory. There is a historical example for this.
One night in 1913 at the Monte Carlo casino
On August 18, 1913 at the Monte Carlo casino the roulette ball fell 26 consecutive times in the black box. From the tenth time the players began to bet large amounts of money on red, hoping that it was time for the ball to change course and land on the red box. It seems logical. But nothing changed. The ball continued to fall into the black square for a good part of the night. Gamblers lost a lot of money and the casino made huge profits. Here is an example of the risks involved in following fallacious logic.